University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape warned Sunday that President Donald Trump is likely to continue military operations against Iran through the 2026 midterm elections due to both battlefield realities and domestic political pressures.
Pape described the conflict as an “escalation trap,” making it difficult for Trump to significantly alter his course despite declining public support. “There’s no getting around the fact that this is an unpopular war,” he said, noting that opinion polls since the conflict began 145 days ago consistently showed a majority of Americans did not support the war.
At the same time, Pape emphasized that Trump’s political base remains committed to the military campaign. “A majority of MAGA supporters—President Trump’s key political base—does support the war,” he stated. “President Trump needs to be a hero in their eyes. That is how he has earned their trust, faith, and votes.”
Pape clarified that recent pauses in U.S. strikes should not signal an end to the conflict. “I don’t think it’s an end to the war,” he said. Instead, the pause reflects military considerations, including concerns about interceptor missile supplies needed to defend against Iranian retaliation. “We’re going to reorient an air campaign to go and pound again the missile sites—especially ballistic missile facilities,” Pape added.
He noted Iran maintains a substantial ballistic missile arsenal: between 1,000 and 1,500 missiles housed underground. “Iran has somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 ballistic missiles, and these are underground,” he said.
Pape predicted another phase of operations targeting missile infrastructure could last “days, possibly several weeks.” “We’re seeing a longer war, not a shorter war,” he stated.
Commenting on recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran must either abandon its nuclear program or see its regime sufficiently weakened, Pape said such objectives point toward an extended conflict. “What Netanyahu is talking about is certainly a forever war,” he added. “That is the very definition of a forever war in this case because Iran is just so big.”
Pape also warned that the administration’s optimistic rhetoric increasingly clashes with ground realities. “The victory rhetoric doesn’t match escalation reality,” he said. “It is out of sync.”
While Pape stopped short of predicting a yearslong conflict, he maintained meaningful policy changes are unlikely before post-midterms political shifts occur. “I think it will actually be after the midterms,” he said. “Between now and January, this is not going to be over.”
