By Michael Katz | Tuesday, 28 April 2026 09:50 PM EDT
As the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz has strangled Iran’s economic lifeline and threatened its oil infrastructure, analysts warn the Islamic Republic may still have options to buy time before being forced to concede.
The blockade preventing ships from entering and leaving Iranian ports began April 13 in response to Iran’s efforts to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman and one of the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoints.
KT McFarland, a former deputy national security adviser in President Donald Trump’s first term, said on April 23 that Iran’s economy could collapse within “a week, maybe at the most two weeks” because the U.S. blockade is choking off the regime’s primary revenue stream. She explained that Iran’s oil infrastructure depends on a continuous flow from wells through pipelines to export terminals, with much of that flow running through Kharg Island, where crude is loaded onto tankers.
Antoine Halff, chief analyst with the climate and energy data analytics firm Kayrros, wrote in an upcoming blog post for Columbia University that Iran might not be “in imminent danger of a major crude oil shut-in.” Halff cited “Iran’s experience in building stocks during the COVID crisis, available space at other facilities, and efforts to increase alternate storage and export facilities over the past 10 years.”
Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group challenged early estimates that Iran only had enough storage to maintain production for two weeks. “That estimate presumed Iran wouldn’t be able to export oil during this time,” Brew, a senior analyst with the political risk consultancy, said. That presumption has not been borne out by developments.
Brew stated Iran is capable of halting production without “catastrophic loss of pressure in the fields.” He also argued that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has additional revenue sources, such as smuggling oil overland and in small tankers. “Even if the U.S. blockade is completely successful — and, importantly, right now it isn’t — IRGC would be able to rely on these alternatives to keep its troops paid and its position in Iran secure,” Brew said.
Rohit Rathod, a senior analyst with commodity tracking and analytics firm Vortexa, noted that as of April 20, Iran had access to 20 very large crude carriers, the type of ships holding 2 million barrels. “These vessels can be easily repurposed by Iran to be used as floating storage and keep producing for about two months,” Rathod said, before Iran must curtail oil production.
Vortexa also estimated that as of April 20, Iran had spare onshore storage equivalent to about three weeks of production. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed production shut-ins have begun and described the blockade as a “one-two punch” with sanctions.
Miad Maleki, a former Treasury sanctions official now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote Monday that Iran’s storage strategy is “delay tactics measured in days, not weeks.”
