Recent polls and prediction markets suggest a close contest for the Texas Senate seat between Democrat James Talarico and whichever Republican—Ken Paxton or Senator John Cornyn—wins the Republican Senate primary runoff next week.
A survey by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University (TSU), conducted from April 22 to May 6, showed a near tie in the general election matchup. Forty-five percent of likely voters indicated they would support incumbent Senator John Cornyn against James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown, while 44% expressed backing for Talarico. Ted Brown received 3% support.
When Senator John Cornyn faced off against James Talarico and Ted Brown in the survey, he garnered 45% of likely voters’ support—matching Talarico’s share. Ted Brown captured 2% of the vote.
A University of Texas poll conducted April 10 to 20 found James Talarico leading both Republicans: Cornyn at 40%-33% and Paxton at 42%-34%.
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted April 17–20, also showed James Talarico ahead, with Paxton at 46% to 41% and Cornyn at 44% to 41%.
Prediction markets indicate Republicans currently hold a slight edge in the race for the seat, with a 55% probability of winning compared to James Talarico’s 45%.
The runoff between Senator John Cornyn and Ken Paxton has become a bitter and expensive battle for the Republican Party, diverting resources from other competitive races nationwide.
Senator John Cornyn’s campaign organizations and allied super PACs have spent significantly more than Ken Paxton on advertising since last year, with the majority of that spending focused on attacking Paxton.
This week, Senator Cornyn’s campaign and supporting groups will have spent over $87 million on advertising, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, including more than $18.5 million since the March 3 primary.
President Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton on May 19, stating: “Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas and will continue to do so in the United States Senate.”
Although Senator John Cornyn has supported President Trump’s agenda in Washington, Ken Paxton positioned himself as a political warrior for the Make America Great Again movement. Trump’s endorsement places him at odds with his party’s establishment, which remains convinced that Cornyn is the better candidate for November.
In a statement, James Talarico said: “It doesn’t matter who wins this runoff. We already know who we’re running against: the billionaire megadonors and their corrupt political system.”
