A recent poll showed Mayor Karen Bass leading her opponent by eleven points in her reelection race—a margin so comfortable it seemed to promise a smooth path forward for the mayor’s team.
But the data wasn’t real. The firm behind it, Median Strategies, later admitted it was a “social experiment” designed to see how far fabricated numbers could travel through the political bloodstream before anyone questioned their authenticity.
The results spread widely. Median Strategies then withdrew all its published data and declared none should be treated as genuine polling information.
This incident isn’t isolated. Median Strategies had previously manipulated the race for Wisconsin State Representative Francesca Hong, showing her with a commanding lead in the governor’s primary—a race the author recently covered. Hong ultimately received 39.3% of the vote to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s, who had registered only 24% in one recent survey and 7% in a July Marquette poll.
The problem isn’t with polling methods but with the brand of trust. As an older principle states: counterfeit products never pay for their deception—only the category they tarnish does.
Consider fake designer watches sold on the street: people don’t stop trusting the seller when they see a watch labeled as genuine; they only lose confidence in that specific brand after realizing it’s counterfeit. But the counterfeiter disappears within days, while the real consumer spends seconds wondering: “How do I know this is authentic?”
That same second of doubt is what Median Strategies has left every legitimate pollster across America—and it’s a crisis of trust.
Marquette polling and honest analysts who model response rates and turnout data are the ones left carrying the stigma of this deception.
Mayor Bass made a critical error: she amplified an artificially inflated number without verifying its source or methodology. She saw a figure that flattered her campaign and assumed it was true—exactly what we all do when we ignore context.
This mistake is familiar to every entrepreneur: screenshotting one five-star review while ignoring twelve mediocre ones, or following advice from a consultant who already knows your decision.
As Michael Corleone in The Godfather said: “Try to think the way the people around you think, and on that basis anything is possible.” That’s what a real pollster does—and it’s precisely what a fabricator skips.
What should the polling industry do?
In 1982, Tylenol’s manufacturer faced a crisis when cyanide-laced capsules were found in Chicago. Instead of defending themselves legally, they pulled 31 million bottles from shelves and rebuilt with tamper-evident packaging—a standard now used worldwide.
The polling industry hasn’t taken such action. Median Strategies withdrew its data—fine, that’s the arsonist calling the fire department—but the rest of the industry has been silent. No recalls, no seals, no visible standards for voters to recognize authenticity.
This silence is a brand decision: one made every day by staying quiet.
Five lessons from this crisis:
1. Median Strategies tested how far their deception could travel before anyone questioned it.
2. They got their answer—and so did the public.
3. Counterfeit data always tells people exactly what they want to hear, until it can’t anymore.
