Not since Lyndon B. Johnson won the pivotal Democrat runoff by a disputed margin of 87 votes over former Governor Coke Stevenson has a Texas race for U.S. senator been so fiercely contested or drawn as much national attention.
The Republican contest between four-term Senator John Cornyn and Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton has become a real show-stopper.
Whoever emerges with the GOP nomination will almost certainly face a hard-fought race in the fall against Democrat state Representative James Talarico.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton last week is widely viewed as enough to push him ahead of Cornyn, who led the initial primary 42% to 40%.
Following Trump’s lead, third-place primary finisher Representative Wesley Hunt recently endorsed Paxton.
The latest Global Strategy poll, released May 20—the day after Trump’s endorsement—showed Paxton leading Cornyn among likely voters by 52% to 40%.
However, even after the poll and Trump’s endorsement, few Republican activists were willing to declare Cornyn certain to lose to the two-term attorney general.
Austin attorney Howard Hickman, a longtime conservative activist who supported Ronald Reagan’s successful 1976 Texas primary campaign, described many on the right’s feelings when he said: “I have not voted for Cornyn since he voted for the [automobile company] bailout in 2008. Paxton will vote right but has the morals of an alley cat.”
Hickman was referring to allegations of serial adultery involving Paxton, along with accusations of mortgage and securities fraud, a reported 7,000% increase in his net worth while in office, and ties to disgraced investor Nate Paul.
Cornyn has emphasized those issues in aggressive campaign ads leading up to Tuesday’s vote.
With early voting closed, roughly 621,000 votes had been cast—a figure considered low for Texas. Many analysts believe Trump supporters are more likely to vote in person on Tuesday than participate in early voting.
In counties where Trump won in 2024 with 80% or more of the vote—areas that are largely rural and accounted for one-fifth of the primary vote—Paxton beat Cornyn by 45% to 40%.
In counties where Trump won between 50% and 80% of the vote, Cornyn edged Paxton by 43% to 42%.
In the 12 Texas counties Kamala Harris carried in 2024—accounting for roughly one-fourth of the primary vote—Cornyn led Paxton by 44% to 40%.
