Republicans are increasingly concerned that Attorney General Ken Paxton’s victory in Texas’ GOP Senate runoff could force the party to divert massive resources into a state typically considered a Republican stronghold, reporting Thursday.
Paxton, backed by President Donald Trump, defeated four-term Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, this week but enters the general election with significant fundraising disadvantages and lingering political baggage from past impeachment and corruption investigations.
Democrat nominee James Talarico has already raised more than $40 million and quickly surged in online donations following Paxton’s victory, intensifying fears among GOP strategists that Texas could become a costly battleground.
Republican operatives reported that outside groups, including MAGA Inc., the Senate Leadership Fund, and Club for Growth, may now be forced to spend upward of $100 million to defend the seat, potentially draining resources from other competitive Senate races as Republicans attempt to protect their majority in 2026.
The growing anxiety extends beyond Texas.
Party strategists privately acknowledge broader concerns that Republicans could face a difficult midterm environment fueled by persistent inflation, rising household costs, and mounting voter fatigue over foreign entanglements tied to escalating tensions with Iran.
Democrats are already framing the election around affordability, with Talarico arguing that Texans “can’t afford the basics: gas, groceries, insurance, housing,” while accusing Republicans of focusing on cultural battles instead of economic relief.
Within Republican circles, some strategists fear the administration’s Iran posture could also create friction inside Trump’s MAGA coalition, which has traditionally favored a more isolationist “America First” foreign policy skeptical of prolonged overseas conflicts.
Those concerns are compounded by historical midterm trends that often punish the president’s party during periods of economic strain.
Republicans are defending multiple Senate seats while also trying to hold a narrow House majority, leaving little margin for error if inflation remains elevated and foreign policy tensions intensify heading into November.
Despite the warnings, Republican leaders publicly insist Texas remains winnable.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., called on donors to “go all-in” behind Paxton, while Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas, cautioned Republicans not to “take this general election for granted.”
