Talarico Leads Paxton 47-44 in First Public Texas Senate Race Poll

By Jim Thomas | Friday, May 29, 2026, 8:29 PM EDT
State Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 47% to 44% in the first public poll of their U.S. Senate contest since Paxton routed Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in the May 26 Republican runoff.
The result has already pushed forecasters to call the November race more competitive.
The survey, self-released Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research, polled 1,670 likely voters May 27-28 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
A libertarian candidate drew 1%, and 7% were undecided.
The opening for Talarico runs straight through Cornyn’s voters: 30% said they would back the Democrat in November, against 44% for Paxton, with 23% undecided or sitting out.
More than half of the Cornyn voters now leaning toward Talarico pointed to Paxton’s criminality or corruption.
The numbers track a swift repricing of the seat.
Within hours of Paxton’s win, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved its rating from likely Republican to lean Republican, citing his ethical controversies and weak fundraising, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball made the same shift.
Both still favor Republicans, and no Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, a reminder that early Democratic leads here have rarely survived to Election Day.
Paxton was indicted on state securities fraud charges in 2015; those felony counts were dropped in 2024 after he agreed to pay restitution.
In 2023, the Republican-led Texas House impeached him on articles including abuse of office, but the state Senate acquitted him, leaving no conviction on either matter.
Both sides moved fast to define each other.
Talarico’s team circulated Paxton’s old booking photo and clips of fellow Republicans’ impeachment criticism, and the Democrat told MS Now, “Ken Paxton has a criminal record; I have a legislative record.”
Paxton has hammered Talarico over past remarks on gender and religion, including a “God is nonbinary” comment; Talarico has said some of those statements “missed the mark.”
President Trump, whose late endorsement powered the runoff, derided Talarico on Truth Social as someone who “may be the worst TEXAS candidate I have ever seen,” and promised to stage rallies for Paxton.
Talarico, courting the losing side, thanked Cornyn and told his supporters, “you have a place in our campaign.” With Republicans defending their Senate majority, both parties expect to spend heavily in Texas before November.
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.