By Charlie McCarthy | Thursday, 12 March 2026
Former NATO Ambassador Kurt Volker described the current situation in Iran and the Persian Gulf as a “big mess,” warning that escalating tensions and attacks on shipping could have serious global consequences.
Speaking at an event on Thursday, Volker noted recent developments indicate Iran continues to exert pressure in the region despite U.S. military action. As the conflict enters its second week, he said the combination of military tensions, disrupted energy markets, and regional instability leaves the situation uncertain.
“It doesn’t look like winning right now,” Volker stated. “You have Iran calling the shots in the Persian Gulf. They are closing the gulf. Shippers are afraid to go through. So right now, we have a big mess.”
The remarks followed reports that Iranian boats carrying explosives struck oil tankers in Iraqi waters, igniting fires and killing at least one crew member. Additional attacks involving Iranian projectiles have reportedly hit several merchant vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes for oil exports.
Energy analysts warn the disruptions could push global oil prices sharply higher if the attacks continue or shipping traffic declines.
Volker said the situation underscores the challenges of confronting Iran’s regime without fully dismantling its power structure. “The regime remains in place,” he added. “We’ve decapitated it, but they’ve chosen a new leader, and they’re still there.”
Without removing the ruling regime, Volker warned Iran could continue destabilizing the region by targeting shipping routes, threatening neighboring countries, and reviving its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
“I think the decision to go in should have been a decision to go all the way,” he said, arguing that lasting stability would require replacing the regime with a government capable of cooperating with the international community.
President Donald Trump, however, has maintained a confident tone regarding the conflict. Speaking Wednesday at an event in Kentucky, Trump suggested the United States had already achieved a decisive outcome. “We won,” Trump stated. “In the first hour, it was over.”
Volker cautioned that the aftermath of the military campaign could still produce long-term challenges if Iran continues retaliatory actions.
He also expressed concern about potential Iranian retaliation beyond the Middle East. U.S. authorities have reportedly warned law enforcement agencies to remain alert for possible Iranian-linked attacks inside the United States.
“Yes, we should certainly be concerned about that,” Volker said. “We have terrific law enforcement and intelligence, but we need to be laser-focused.”
While drone threats have been discussed, Volker noted lone attackers or sleeper cells could pose an even greater danger. “If Iran has the ability to do it, they will do it,” he warned.
