A new Echelon poll reveals a deepening ideological divide within the Democratic Party as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., climbs to fourth place in early 2028 presidential field support. Polling expert Patrick Allocco, co-founder of the Zoose Political Index, said on Friday that this standing underscores a “battle for the soul” of the party.
The April survey of 525 Democrat and Democrat-leaning voters showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading with 22%, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 21% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 12%. Ocasio-Cortez follows with 10%.
Allocco noted that the top-line numbers are driven in part by familiarity rather than firm voter commitment. “What are they looking at in that poll? Name ID and news cycle familiarity,” he said.
Despite this, Allocco argued that Ocasio-Cortez’s position is more significant than it appears, citing strong enthusiasm among progressive voters. “The left is energized with AOC in the passion lane,” he said. “This is her floor at 10%. When polling reaches her coalition, she’s going up.”
The poll highlights a broader shift within the Democratic electorate. According to the survey, 68% of Democrat-aligned respondents prefer “democratic socialism” over capitalism with regulation.
Allocco contrasted this with prior cycles: “Ten years ago, in 2016, if you polled socialism versus capitalism, the results were split,” he said. “Even today, it’s a 10-point difference. In this poll, it’s much wider.”
He also described a “fighter index” driving voter preferences, with respondents prioritizing candidates they believe will aggressively oppose President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. “They’re looking at how angry they are against Trump and MAGA and who the best candidate is to fight against MAGA,” Allocco explained.
In that measure, 83% of respondents said Harris would fight hard, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 80% and Newsom at 78%. The same survey found 86% of Democrat voters want their party to be more combative against Trump.
“Taken together,” Allocco added, “the results show a party divided between establishment figures leading on name recognition and a progressive wing, energized by candidates like Ocasio-Cortez, gaining traction through intensity and ideological alignment.”
