By Sam Barron
Special envoy Elliott Abrams, who served under President Donald Trump during his first term, said on Monday that he is not optimistic about achieving a deal with Iran’s current leadership.
He described the regime as “pretty fanatical” and noted that none of its leaders are willing to make concessions because they have recently come to power.
“The first thing they don’t want to do is make a concession,” Abrams said, adding, “Then somebody’s going to go after you inside that regime. I’m really doubtful that these negotiations are going to come up with a kind of deal.”
He also expressed skepticism about the optimism surrounding potential concessions: “I just don’t share the optimism that we’re going to find somebody there willing, in a sense, to bite the bullet and make the concessions they need to make.”
Abrams stated that Iran’s regime cannot be removed without deploying hundreds of thousands of troops. He emphasized: “We’ve really, really weakened this regime. It will fall.”
He added that while the exact timeline is uncertain — ranging from a month to five years — the regime and its economy are significantly weaker now than before.
Abrams warned that the U.S. must ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open for oil shipments, which “may mean taking some of those islands” or parts of Iran’s southern coast. He cautioned: “If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t really open, freely open, the president is going to look like he did not win this war.”
He suggested that the conflict could end when Trump agrees to stop attacking Iran in exchange for Iran committing to not attack other countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Abrams noted: “They’ll claim victory. They’ll say, ‘We got everything we needed,’ and then we just stop.”
Additionally, Abrams stated he does not believe Iran will attempt to rebuild its nuclear arsenal while Trump remains president. He added that efforts should be made to help Iranians remove the current government they dislike: “We should be … making sure that they don’t start rebuilding and at the same time doing whatever we can to help the people of Iran so that they can, in fact, get rid of this government that they hate.”
