Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz suffers from a “perception problem” rather than actual danger, noting only one out of a thousand ships would be hit by enemy fire in the vital shipping lane.
Speaking during an interview about Middle East tensions, Shaffer and retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt discussed President Donald Trump’s push for NATO allies to help defend the strait as threats from Iran have escalated.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with approximately 20% of global oil shipments passing through it daily. Despite sporadic attacks using drones and small boats by Iran, Shaffer emphasized that the actual risk to maritime traffic remains minimal. “Ships are still going through,” Shaffer told co-hosts Marc Lotter and Christina Thompson. “Only one out of a thousand will be hit, but that one in a thousand is what freaks everybody out.”
Shaffer argued the issue stems from psychological factors tied to Iran’s intimidation tactics and uncertainty in global markets, not an imminent shutdown of shipping. Trump has urged European nations, Japan, and China—countries heavily reliant on the strait for energy—to contribute naval forces escorting commercial vessels.
Holt asserted Trump’s approach is justified, stating: “You’ve got Europe that wants to stand up every day and twice on Sunday to say, ‘We’ll never touch Russian gas again,’ then they won’t help secure the very shipping lanes their energy depends on.” Holt also noted European reluctance may stem from commercial interests tied to London-based maritime insurance markets. “I don’t want to hear from Lloyd’s of London again to try to shut down the straits,” he said. “You’re not helping the European people out, and you’re not being a good ally.”
Shaffer highlighted that new security arrangements could reshape global commerce, potentially weakening European financial influence in insurance markets. Holt warned that disruptions to food supply chains might worsen due to energy production and refining issues, including California’s reduced oil capacity. “The famine is what we should be talking about, not oil prices,” he added.
Shaffer noted military tensions could ease soon, echoing recent comments from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, but cautioned Iran’s use of asymmetric tactics like drones might persist even after major operations subside. “This isn’t a supply issue,” Shaffer said. “There’s plenty of oil. The issue is perception.”
