Recently, I revisited Washington, D.C., marking the 20th anniversary of when I moved there to work in the U.S. Senate.
Beyond personal reflections on all the years—both the time and the weight that have passed—I found myself contemplating a more global perspective.
The world was very different two decades ago. We were locked in protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, while America had not yet become the largest oil producer and exporter globally. Thanks to President Trump and our domestic industry, we are now the leading force in oil production and exports worldwide. Fears about “climate change” during the mid-2000s attracted bipartisan concern, but today most Republicans have concluded that Al Gore exaggerated threats for profit—meaning there is no need to retreat into the Middle Ages to address modest temperature rises.
Despite this shift, we still cling to outdated policies from that era, such as the 2005 Energy Policy Act. This legislation promised ethanol subsidies would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower reliance on imported oil—a goal now obsolete. The regulatory subsidies tied to it have failed both environmental goals and price stability, which need to drop before November if Republicans want to avoid electoral consequences.
The simplest solution is to reduce requirements for blending ethanol into the nation’s gasoline supply (known as renewable volume obligations or “RVOs”), and the alternative where refiners must purchase ethanol credits (“RINs”) when blending falls short. We can achieve this while still complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)—though the standard itself should be repealed or fixed. At a minimum, Congress must reject calls to allow year-round sale of E15 gasoline—gasoline containing 15% ethanol.
High RVOs and increased ethanol blending add hidden taxes on energy use. The RFS currently costs consumers about $0.20 per gallon, according to the Energy Policy Research Foundation. Additional requirements would add another $0.27 per gallon. Together, that’s approximately $0.47 of avoidable cost per gallon—$183.62 per capita annually.
The average American family of four pays about $734 a year in hidden RFS costs—a burden that grows as living expenses rise. It turns out that what seemed like a good idea in 2005 no longer works today. With gas prices hovering near $4.00 per gallon following the Iran conflict, Trump’s disapproval of high gas prices stands at 76%, according to a recent CNN poll—a figure higher than Joe Biden’s worst number on the same issue (72%).
Reducing this cost by $0.47 could make a significant difference. Rural Americans drive about 30% more miles per year than urban residents. Among states with the highest per-capita RFS costs, 13 are Republican-held or leaning. A family of four in Alabama pays an estimated $1,092 annually in hidden RFS costs. Keeping rural voters—and swing voters—happy will be essential to hold Senate seats in states like Texas, Georgia, and Maine.
But if Republicans do not address this issue, families in those states will continue paying over $800 a year for gas. It is tough for Republicans to fathom how Graham Platner or James Talarico could win without reducing these costs. Yet, if they do, the additional $800 cost will be a key factor.
Removing that $800 cost could help the GOP win in a year where their net negative at Real Clear Politics is -17, but Democrats’ net negative is -19. Before anyone worries that rolling back ethanol blending requirements would hurt Republicans, it’s worth remembering that the political calculus around the RFS has been proven wrong in recent years.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has long opposed renewable mandates but won the Iowa caucuses in 2016. Kamala Harris lost Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024. Iowans vote on issues beyond ethanol policy—perhaps little surprise given that hog and soybean farmers don’t benefit from it, while the state has become home to big tech, retirement planning, and wind farms.
Yes, the world was a very different place two decades ago. Just as Republicans have recognized the folly of pro-amnesty immigration policies and much of their “nation-building” in the Middle East, they must now acknowledge the errors of outdated energy policy. The only renewables Washington Republicans should be worried about bolstering are their congressional majorities.
By Jared Whitley | Wednesday, 24 June 2026
