Texas Republican politics were thrown into chaos Tuesday as President Donald Trump publicly endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton for the party’s May 26 U.S. Senate runoff election against incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
Paxton narrowly lost the initial GOP primary to Cornyn by a margin of two points (42% to 40%), but both candidates advanced to the runoff after neither secured a majority in the primary. A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll released May 1 showed Paxton leading Cornyn among likely runoff voters at 48% to 45%, indicating the race remains competitive.
Paxton, who survived an impeachment trial in the Texas state Senate two years ago, has faced significant personal controversy. His estranged wife, State Senator Angela Paxton, accused him of multiple extramarital affairs and filed for divorce in July last year.
Trump praised Paxton on Truth Social with the message: “Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN. Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.” He described Cornyn as “a good man,” though added that Cornyn was “not supportive [of Trump] when times were tough.”
Analysts suggest Paxton has become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination following Trump’s influence in contested primaries across Indiana, Kentucky, and Louisiana. Wayne Thorburn, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, noted: “One should never be surprised by something Donald Trump does, and I would not be surprised if Paxton wins the nomination now.”
A recent survey by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found that Paxton and State Representative James Talarico are tied at 45%. The same survey reported Talarico’s 45% favorability rating among likely voters, compared to Paxton’s 42% favorable and 48% unfavorable.
With Texas not electing a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, Thorburn warned that partisan loyalty remains a powerful force in this race: “James Talarico will have a serious opportunity to win against Paxton, but one cannot overlook the strong pull of partisan loyalty.”
