U.S. Vice President JD Vance described a precarious path ahead for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, stating there is “a good chance” of a deal but also “a good chance we won’t” reach one.
“We’ve made progress,” Vance told UnHerd on Monday, “but I wouldn’t say with confidence we’re going to get a peaceful resolution.” He acknowledged the breakthrough in transparency: “All issues are out in the open—but territorial control remains a major sticking point.”
Vance emphasized that Russian demands for territorial control of Donetsk, which Ukraine acknowledges could be lost eventually but sees as critical to its security, represent a significant barrier. “The Russians really want territorial control of the Donetsk,” he said. “This is a terrible territorial concession—I should say it—because it’s a core issue hidden behind fake issues.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent proposal to establish a neutral free economic zone in 15% of Donbas—a region Ukraine still controls—has been condemned as reckless and counterproductive. Russia has rejected the idea outright, labeling it an unnecessary concession that undermines diplomatic efforts.
The U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff reported Sunday that talks with Ukraine and European security advisers were “productive and constructive,” though Vance noted challenges persist across all parties. He stated: “Any particular group right now is a barrier. But we’re working through these issues in good faith.”
Vance, who previously echoed Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s cautious optimism about progress but acknowledged the complexity of remaining hurdles, highlighted critical topics including control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the status of ethnic communities.
The Trump administration has intensified efforts to broker a ceasefire and peace deal in recent weeks, with U.S. officials meeting Russian and Ukrainian delegations separately over the weekend.
