Texas voters heading to the polls for Tuesday’s primary election have tightened the Republican race for U.S. Senate into a high-stakes contest among three prominent figures, with state Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow but consistent lead according to several recent surveys.
Three major new surveys show Paxton ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, while Rep. Wesley Hunt continues to gain traction among conservative voters. A Quantus Insights survey conducted among 939 likely Republican primary voters reveals Paxton leading Cornyn with 43% to Cornyn’s 37.6%, Hunt at 15.7%, and 3.8% undecided.
That poll finds that 86% of respondents are firmly committed or unlikely to change their vote, suggesting minimal room for late movement. A recent University of Texas survey found Paxton leading Cornyn by 36% to 34%.
A statewide survey conducted January 20-31 by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston shows Paxton leading the Republican field with 38%, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%, with 12% undecided.
Under Texas election law, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. With Paxton well short of that threshold, a May runoff appears likely. In hypothetical May runoff matchups, the Hobby School poll indicates Paxton would lead Cornyn by 51% to 40% and Hunt by 56% to 33%. Meanwhile, Cornyn leads Hunt by 46% to 39%.
The race reveals a striking generational divide. Among voters aged 65 and older — who constitute roughly 72% of the likely Republican primary electorate — Paxton and Cornyn are essentially tied. However, among voters under 65, Paxton leads by double digits.
Paxton’s coalition is anchored in voters who strongly identify with the America First or MAGA movement. Within this bloc — which makes up more than half the Republican primary electorate — Paxton leads Cornyn nearly three-to-one. Cornyn’s strength lies primarily with traditional Republicans and longtime party conservatives, though that group represents a smaller share of today’s GOP primary electorate.
President Donald Trump remains highly popular among Republican primary voters, receiving nearly 90% favorability in the University of Houston survey. This political environment appears to favor Paxton, who has aligned closely with Trump’s agenda and brand.
While trailing, Hunt has demonstrated steady support in the midteens and performs best among younger voters. In the Quantus survey, Hunt reaches 26% among voters aged 18-29 and over 22% among those 30-44. Though he remains a distant third, his presence complicates Cornyn’s path to consolidating anti-Paxton support before a runoff.
For now, Paxton enters primary day with momentum — but not yet with a majority.
