By Hamid Enayat
Friday, 26 September 2025 01:47 PM EDT
The activation of the “snapback” mechanism represents a critical moment for Iran, potentially weakening the regime’s ability to perpetuate war and repression. This move could disrupt the religious dictatorship’s operations by reinstating previous UN sanctions, marking a strategic challenge to its influence in the region.
Thousands of Iranian diaspora members in the U.S. rallied on Sept. 23, while tens of thousands in Europe gathered in Brussels on Sept. 6, urging the snapback to be triggered. They argue it could curb the regime’s aggression and halt cycles of violence. Since the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, the Islamic Republic has masked domestic oppression with external conflicts, using slogans like “Death to Israel” and “Death to America” to justify its actions.
The snapback forces Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei into a difficult choice: continuing nuclear programs or abandoning them. Either path risks destabilizing the regime, as past protests in 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022 show societal frustration over economic hardship and repression. If enrichment continues, renewed sanctions would strain Iran’s economy, exacerbating public discontent. If abandoned, the regime’s repressive apparatus could collapse.
Khamenei has rejected negotiations with the U.S., insisting on maintaining nuclear capabilities to avoid immediate overthrow. His reliance on fear tactics echoes past strategies, such as the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, but his current authority is weaker than that of Ayatollah Khomeini. The regime’s internal divisions are evident in conflicting responses to sanctions: some promote self-reliance, while others threaten drastic actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz or conducting a nuclear test.
The snapback has created an opportunity for Iranian society—already burdened by poverty, executions, and systemic corruption—to challenge the regime’s rule. Hamid Enayat, based in Paris, is a noted expert on Iran and the Mideast region.
