Gallup reports that Democrats now hold a 10-percentage-point lead over Republicans in combined party identification and leanings ahead of November’s midterm elections, marking a sharp reversal from the Republican Party’s dominance following President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The quarterly averages show 49% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or independents leaning toward the Democratic Party during the first two quarters of 2026, compared with 39% who identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. This gap represents Gallup’s largest Democratic advantage in publicly displayed quarterly trends dating back to 2015.
The shift marks a significant reversal from late 2024, when Republicans held a 47%-43% edge. The parties were tied at 45% in early 2025 before Democrats gained momentum: moving ahead 46%-43% in the second quarter, 48%-41% in the third, and 48%-40% in the fourth. Gallup’s annual figures indicate Republicans held a 46%-45% advantage throughout 2024 before Democrats achieved a 47%-42% lead for 2025.
However, the latest numbers do not necessarily signal growing enthusiasm for the Democratic Party. Gallup reported that the shift primarily involved independents who lean toward a party rather than self-identified Democrats or Republicans. At that time, the Democratic Party’s favorable rating stood at 34%, the lowest Gallup recorded since its inception in 1992—compared with 38% for the Republican Party.
In January 2025, Gallup noted that a record 45% of Americans identified as independents, while just 27% each identified as Democrats or Republicans. Among independents, 20% leaned Democratic and 15% leaned Republican. The polling organization has observed such shifts frequently occur when the party controlling Washington loses ground, without necessarily indicating voters are warming toward the opposition party—a pattern seen during the early years of the Clinton, Obama, first Trump, and Biden administrations.
Historical comparisons require caution: while Gallup’s annual data show Democrats’ largest advantage in combined identification and leanings was 12 percentage points in 2008, the organization recorded an even larger 13-percentage-point quarterly lead in early 2009, when Democrats held 51.7% to Republicans’ 38.7%.
Gallup’s quarterly figures are based on telephone surveys of at least 3,000 U.S. adults and have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
