Polling expert Patrick Allocco stated on Monday that he expects Republicans to overcome challenging recent polling and win closely watched U.S. Senate races in Texas and Michigan.
Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index, said his current forecast gives Republicans 51 Senate seats, with Texas and Michigan among the states he expects the party to carry.
In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has faced a tight race against state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat. An August University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Talarico ahead 42% to 39%, while an Emerson College poll indicated Paxton leading 47% to 46%.
Allocco stated that President Donald Trump’s involvement will ultimately help Paxton overcome the polling deficit.
“Texas is a turnout call,” Allocco said. “Trump is now fully engaged. And we just saw in South Carolina how his involvement can energize the Republican base. Paxton has a proven Republican coalition, and we think the GOP turnout machine can overcome the current polling deficit.”
Allocco described his reasoning for Michigan as different: “Michigan is different. It’s a candidate, an electorate call,” he said.
In Michigan, Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for the seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters. Rogers narrowly lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by about 19,000 votes, 48.3% to 48.6%.
“We’ve been writing for a month about the fracture inside the Democratic big tent,” Allocco said. “We believe some moderate Democrats stay home and some, including potentially Jewish voters uncomfortable with El-Sayed, cross over to Rogers. That’s why today, we give Republicans the edge in both.”
A new EPIC-MRA poll released over the weekend showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 47% to 43%, with 10% undecided. The 4-point lead matched the poll’s stated margin of error.
Allocco questioned whether Michigan polling is accurately modeling turnout.
“Michigan pollsters have had a real problem identifying who’s actually going to show up,” he said. “So, until I see evidence that the turnout model has been fixed, I give Rogers the edge.”
