Former Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie and foreign policy analyst Walid Phares emphasized Thursday that economic pressure against Iran must be directed specifically at the regime while simultaneously strengthening internal opposition.
“We cannot negotiate with dead-enders and millenarians,” Wilkie stated in an interview. “They believe they are called by God to change the world, making traditional diplomatic ‘carrots and sticks’ ineffective.”
Wilkie’s remarks followed reports that Qatar had launched new negotiations with Tehran and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly warned President Donald Trump that diplomatic efforts with the Iranian regime would be futile.
“I think the most important thing we can do is create a symbiotic response—meaning economic pressure and military pressure,” Wilkie explained. “The goal should be to deprive them of sustenance from outside their country and continue collapsing the regime from within.”
Phares noted that economic measures must distinguish between “the economy of the country” and “the economy—the money—of the regime.” He added, “These are two different things. The focus should be on the regime: those who have banks and institutions.”
Phares described the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as “the de facto Treasury Department of the regime,” arguing that economic measures alone are inadequate.
“We must arm the Iranian people—at least parts of them—starting with Tehran,” Phares said. “That pressure would become double and triple, putting strain on the regime rather than the people.”
Wilkie concurred, stating the strategy should aim to “deprive the regime of its sustenance” and “its ability to pay security forces and proxies.” He added that separating “true believers from fellow travelers” would trigger a cascading effect similar to the collapse of Iran’s Shah’s government in 1979.
Phares estimated the regime maintains roughly 400,000 fighters, including about 50,000 “die-hard” supporters, while opposition groups could mobilize “about 100 to 200 thousand volunteers.”
“The problem is we are not communicating,” Phares said. “We need to send a message—like a presidential speech would be as strong as 50 divisions.”
Phares also called for weapons to be supplied to a portion of the opposition: “We’re not talking about all 90 million Iranians. But about 200,000—that’s feasible,” he said.
“We need economic pressure and arming parts of the population,” Phares stated. “This will create the cascade effect the secretary described.”
