A new poll indicates Republicans are gaining significant ground on Democrats ahead of the November midterm elections, suggesting the battle for control of Congress could be tighter than many political observers expected. The latest Economist/YouGov survey, released Tuesday, found Democrats holding only a narrow lead over Republicans on the congressional generic ballot—a dramatic shift from earlier polling this year. Among registered voters, Democrats led Republicans by 46% to 44%. Across all adults surveyed, Democrats held a 39% to 36% advantage. The results mark continued movement in favor of the GOP. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in February showed Democrats with a seven-point lead on the generic ballot, which had narrowed to five points by May. These latest numbers could strengthen Republican hopes of holding onto their House majority despite historical trends that often benefit the party out of power during midterm elections. The Economist/YouGov findings are not the only warning sign for Democrats. A Harvard-HarrisX poll found the electorate evenly divided, with 50% of registered voters indicating support for their local Democrat candidate and 50% backing a Republican. While Democrats maintained a 52% to 48% edge among independents, Republicans demonstrated stronger voter enthusiasm. Overall, 71% of respondents said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote. Among Republicans, 62% were certain to vote and an additional 18% likely to cast ballots. For Democrats, 59% were definite voters and 17% probable. Independents reported a 40% definite voting rate and 17% probable. The polling comes as both parties ramp up efforts to energize voters ahead of what is expected to be a fiercely contested fight for control of Congress. The Economist/YouGov poll was conducted June 13-15, surveying 1,549 U.S. adults including 1,403 registered voters. The margin of error for the entire sample was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and plus or minus 3.4 percentage points among registered voters.
Midterm Race Tightens as Republicans Close Gap on Democrats
