By Alex Chen, Political Correspondent
With hours remaining before polls open today in Texas for the Republican U.S. Senate runoff, a group of prominent Republicans have largely agreed that if Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton defeats incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, he will enter the general election as the clear favorite against Democrat James Talarico.
A longtime Texas conservative activist stated that President Trump’s endorsement last week should be enough to push Paxton over the top on Tuesday. “Despite all the attacks against him, Paxton is still in a strong position to beat Talarico in November,” the activist added.
The activist also cited the latest Quantus Poll released Monday, which showed Paxton leading Cornyn in the runoff by 53% to 43%. This poll suggests Republican voters are consolidating behind the attorney general heading into Election Day.
A former Republican congressman from Texas agreed with the assessment. He noted that party unity will likely play a decisive role after the runoff concludes. According to the most recent Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll, “90% of Cornyn supporters will support Paxton if he’s the nominee, and 91% of Paxton supporters will support Cornyn if he’s the nominee.”
The former congressman, who acknowledged he personally voted for Cornyn, remarked that President Trump has roughly $300 million in his campaign account. “That kind of money can make a tremendous difference in Texas,” he said. He also emphasized, “The conservative Republican base is nowhere near as divided as the national media wants people to believe.”
Earlier polling suggested a hypothetical matchup between Paxton and Talarico was essentially a dead heat. However, many Texas Republicans now believe this dynamic would shift dramatically once voters focus more closely on Talarico’s progressive record and public statements.
Austin attorney Howard A. Hickman, a veteran conservative activist who worked on Ronald Reagan’s Texas campaigns in 1976 and 1980, flatly predicted that “if Paxton wins the runoff, he will defeat Talarico in the fall.”
Hickman argued that despite national media portrayals of Talarico as a moderate Democrat, his positions are far outside the mainstream of Texas voters. “Once Republicans unite behind Paxton and voters really begin paying attention to Talarico, they’re going to see someone who is simply too woke for the state of Texas,” Hickman said.
He specifically pointed to controversial comments attributed to Talarico, including statements that “God is non-binary” and support for significantly more open immigration policies along the Texas-Mexico border. “Those kinds of statements are going to be devastating in a Texas general election,” Hickman added.
Hickman also highlighted Talarico’s criticism of the oil and gas industry and past comments on environmental issues as additional vulnerabilities statewide. “Talarico will be lucky to lose by six points,” he said, “but more realistically, he probably ends up in the traditional statewide Democrat range of losing by eight to twelve points.”
