KENTUCKY — Rep. Thomas Massie faces a serious threat in Tuesday’s Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, according to polling expert Patrick Allocco.
Allocco told reporters on Monday that President Donald Trump’s endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein has dramatically shifted the race. “Trump’s endorsement is still the gold standard in a Republican primary,” Allocco said. “That’s why the momentum is with Gallrein.”
Trump escalated his attacks on Massie this week, posting on Truth Social that the lawmaker is “the worst congressman in the long and storied history of the Republican Party.” He labeled Massie an “obstructionist and a fool,” urging supporters to “vote him out of office tomorrow.”
Massie, a libertarian-leaning Republican first elected in 2012, has frequently clashed with GOP leadership and Trump on spending bills and other issues. Trump endorsed Gallrein after criticizing Massie for opposing Republican-backed legislation such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Allocco said Trump’s backing has fundamentally altered the contest. “Massie may have a brand and [a] loyal base, but Trump’s endorsement turned this race on its head,” he stated. Allocco pointed to recent Republican primaries as evidence of Trump’s continued influence in the GOP. “It is far better to have the president’s endorsement than to have him like you,” he said. “You don’t have to go back very far. Just look at what happened to Cassidy.”
Allocco was referring to Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., who drew Trump’s ire after voting to convict him during the 2021 impeachment trial. Cassidy’s reelection bid tumbled Saturday when he finished third behind Trump-backed Reps. Julia Letlow and John Fleming in Louisiana’s Republican primary.
Allocco also cited recent state legislative races in Indiana. “Five Trump-backed challengers knocked off GOP state senators who crossed him on redistricting,” he said. Recent polling shows Gallrein ahead by 7 percentage points, with betting markets shifting against Massie ahead of Tuesday’s vote. As of Monday night, Kalshi gave Massie a 38% chance of winning, while Polymarket had him trailing.
