Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., long a thorn in President Donald Trump’s side, is trailing a Trump-backed challenger ahead of Kentucky’s May 19 Republican primary, according to a Quantus Insights poll released Wednesday.
The poll of 909 likely Republican primary voters, conducted May 11–12, found former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein with 48.3% support compared to Massie’s 43.6%. Additionally, 7.6% of respondents were undecided. Among those undecided, 52.4% leaned toward Gallrein, while 23.4% favored Massie and 24.1% remained completely undecided.
Quantus Insights described the results as a warning sign for an incumbent: “For an incumbent member of Congress, especially one with Massie’s long-standing name identification and well-defined political brand, sitting at roughly 43% on the initial ballot is a warning sign,” the firm stated in its news release. “Massie retains a substantial base, but the topline suggests that a meaningful share of the Republican primary electorate is already prepared to move in another direction.”
The poll also underscores growing political danger for Massie following recent victories by Trump-backed challengers in Indiana. After several incumbent Republican state senators who opposed Trump’s congressional redistricting plan lost their primaries on May 5, Chris LaCivita—a senior Trump adviser and leader of the pro-Gallrein MAGA KY PAC—tweeted: “Hey @RepThomasMassie …. you are next.”
Massie has consistently opposed Trump-backed legislation and occasionally criticized President Donald Trump directly, often putting him at odds with the president and GOP leadership. As a fiscal conservative and libertarian, Massie frequently votes against spending bills, debt increases, continuing resolutions, and large federal packages regardless of which party supports them.
President Donald Trump first called for Massie to face primary challenges after he voted against a continuing resolution in March 2025, though the measure narrowly passed the House. Massie also has voted against bills he believes are not aligned with conservative values.
In a March 2025 post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump wrote: “Congressman Thomas Massie, of beautiful Kentucky, is an automatic ‘NO’ vote on just about everything, despite the fact that he has always voted for Continuing Resolutions in the past. HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED, and I will lead the charge against him. He’s just another GRANDSTANDER, who’s too much trouble, and not worth the fight. He reminds me of Liz Chaney before her historic, record breaking fall (loss!). The people of Kentucky won’t stand for it, just watch. DO I HAVE ANY TAKERS???”
