By Jim Thomas | Tuesday, December 16, 2025 11:00 PM EST
A new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office indicates that a House Republican healthcare package scheduled for a floor vote this Wednesday would reduce premiums under the Affordable Care Act by 11% and cut federal deficits by more than $35 billion, providing GOP leaders with momentum as health coverage costs resurface as a central issue heading into the election year.
The estimate covers the Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act, unveiled last week by Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and other House Republican leaders.
According to the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation, the savings would accrue through 2035. The analysis also reveals that the legislation could result in approximately 100,000 fewer people having health insurance over a ten-year period.
Republicans contend that the proposal targets structural costs within the healthcare system while expanding lower-cost coverage options outside the “Obamacare” exchanges. The bill would impose increased transparency requirements for pharmacy benefit managers, a long-standing target of bipartisan criticism. It would also appropriate cost-sharing reduction payments, a move the Congressional Budget Office states accounts for much of the projected premium reductions.
The package further expands access to Association Health Plans, enabling self-employed workers and members of large organizations to pool together and purchase insurance. Supporters assert that these plans can provide significantly cheaper coverage than exchange-based policies. Although the Congressional Budget Office did not independently score Association Health Plan premiums in detail, previous analyses indicate substantial savings.
Under Trump-era regulations, groups such as the Southern Arizona Chamber of Commerce could offer coverage to small businesses across counties. However, that rule was later blocked after lawsuits from 11 states, forcing many of these plans out of the market. The current bill would codify those earlier rules into law.
Other provisions include protections for small and midsize employers against catastrophic claims and rules allowing employers to offer defined contributions so workers can purchase their own health insurance—a policy first implemented during President Donald Trump’s first term.
The Congressional Budget Office findings closely mirror an earlier report from the Paragon Health Institute, which estimated roughly $30 billion in savings and a 12% reduction in premiums, driven largely by funding cost-sharing reduction payments.
The legislation could face internal resistance within the GOP conference. The House is not expected to vote on an amendment extending enhanced subsidies that are set to expire, drawing criticism from some moderates. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York has warned that allowing those subsidies to lapse could raise premiums for some constituents, potentially creating a fault line as Republicans emphasize cost savings while Democrats focus on coverage levels.
Earlier, House GOP leaders refused to hold a vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, with Johnson stating lawmakers will instead advance the party’s own healthcare bill, leaving the expanded subsidies set to expire and triggering warnings of higher premiums.
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Political Science and a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, having practiced law for more than 20 years.
