Polling expert Patrick Allocco stated that President Donald Trump’s relatively low approval numbers on the Iran conflict stand in sharp contrast to the surge of support former President George W. Bush saw at the outset of the Iraq War.
Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index, noted that Bush’s approval climbed into the 70s in March 2003 — including a Gallup reading of 71% — because of what he described as a “rally-around-the-flag effect.” This dynamic followed the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and carried into the early stages of the Iraq War.
“That rally-around-the-flag effect occurs when we or an ally is attacked,” Allocco explained in an interview. “Bush reached those 70s because 9/11 created a shared national event, a shared enemy, and a shared media environment.”
By comparison, current polling shows Trump facing majority opposition to his handling of military action against Iran. The RealClearPolitics average indicates 41.3% approve and 54.8% disapprove.
Allocco argued the modern political environment makes such a surge unlikely. “You had far less polarization, far more institutional trust, and a country that for a brief period moved as one,” he said.
“Today, none of that exists. We live in two electorates, two information systems, two reflexes,” Allocco added.
He also noted that even major geopolitical events no longer produce unified public reactions. “So even when something big happens, half the country interprets this as approval and not through the event itself,” he said.
Recent polling reflects this divide, with surveys showing Trump’s overall approval in the low-to-mid 40s and similar low support for the Iran conflict specifically.
