Republican candidate Steve Hilton maintains a commanding lead in the race for California’s governor, with Democrat billionaire investor Tom Steyer gaining ground following former Representative Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal from the contest.
Recent polling data indicates Hilton holds 17.3% support compared to Steyer’s 14.8%, giving the Republican candidate a 2.5-point advantage in what is proving a crowded primary race. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican hopeful, rounds out the top contenders with 13% support.
Democrats remain deeply divided after Swalwell exited the field—initially leading with 13.3% before his departure and former Representative Katie Porter holding at 10.3%. A recent survey reinforces Hilton’s position, showing him ahead of Steyer and Bianco with 17% to 14% each.
The data reveals a significant split among Democrats, who now distribute their vote across three major contenders: Steyer (20%), former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%). In the absence of Swalwell on the ballot, Becerra has gained substantial traction within Democratic voting blocs.
Hilton also demonstrates strong appeal among key demographics. He leads voters aged 50 and older with 24% support and commands a decisive edge among Republicans, who favor him at 48% compared to Bianco’s 40%. Independents remain fragmented, with no candidate securing a clear majority in their support.
A prior survey conducted earlier in the month showed Steyer briefly leading with 21% to Hilton’s 18%, but that poll was taken during a period of disruption as allegations against Swalwell surfaced and several endorsements were withdrawn. Steyer has drawn strong backing from voters aged 35–49 across multiple regions, while Hilton maintains an edge among Republicans, conservatives, higher-income groups, and residents in rural areas and the Inland Empire—indicating a potentially robust base even within California’s typically blue political landscape.
Despite Steyer’s recent gains, the broader trend points to Democrats continuing to splinter while Republicans consolidate behind Hilton as the primary approaches. Voters consistently rank economic conditions and rising living costs as their top concerns—a focus that aligns with Hilton’s messaging as Californians grapple with high taxes, housing affordability challenges, and economic uncertainty.
With months remaining before the primary election, the race remains volatile. However, for now, Hilton holds a steady lead while Democrats continue to divide their vote.
