April 12, 2026 – A former special representative to Iran, Elliott Abrams, described President Donald Trump’s order for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as “smart, but dangerous,” warning it could escalate into a major confrontation with China.
Abrams explained on Sunday that while the strategy might pressure Iran economically by restricting oil exports, it carries significant geopolitical risks. He emphasized that Chinese ships would face critical challenges if they sought to transit the strait to pick up Iranian oil and transport it back to China.
“Smart in the sense that we cannot allow Iran to export oil as it wishes,” Abrams said, “but dangerous because what happens if Chinese ships want to go through the strait to Iran to pick up oil and take it back to China? That’s a significant confrontation between the U.S. and China.”
Abrams noted Trump is “raising the stakes” but may be holding off on more aggressive actions such as seizing Iranian territory. He stated that the risk to American Navy sailors from conducting the blockade is much lower than the danger of taking an island near Iran.
The former envoy also highlighted economic implications, stating that 90 percent of Iran’s oil goes to China and China accounts for roughly 15 percent of its oil imports from Iran. “If that strait is closed, they’re going to be very short of energy pretty shortly,” Abrams said.
Meanwhile, Robert Pape, a University of Chicago political science professor, warned that the breakdown in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program has reached a critical phase due to concerns about Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpiles. Pape stated that the collapse of talks, combined with the naval blockade, places the U.S. deeper into an “escalation trap,” increasing the risk of direct conflict and endangering U.S. forces.
Pape added that the situation could soon lead to a ground operation aimed at securing Iranian nuclear material, which he described as potentially the most dangerous mission for U.S. special forces since World War II.
